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Analysts expect buds of growth in a wide range of service jobs this year -- retail, information technology, professional, scientific and technical jobs -- as well as continuing growth in the health-care industry.
'Primary job generation will be across a wide range of private service areas,' says Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight, an economic consulting firm in Lexington, Mass.
With the aging population, health care remains the go-to field for job growth, experts say. 'Health care is always adding jobs. That will clearly continue,' says Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, a Washington think tank.
Among the positions expected to have greater demand in coming years: nurses, medical scientists, physician assistants, skin-care specialists and dental hygienists.
Information-technology also will be adding jobs as companies that have been sitting on cash will want to upgrade their technology to gain a competitive edge as the economy emerges from the recession, says John Challenger, chief executive of outplacement consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas in Chicago.
'A lot of companies over the last couple of years have cut down their spending on IT,' Mr. Challenger says. 'But, as we know, technology takes quantum leaps every few years. So there is technology that companies are buying, and they will need people who can come in and implement it, customize it, teach people how to use it [and] provide technical support.'
Mr. Gault says there could be room for growth in financial-services jobs. 'Lending activity should pick up,' he says. 'There will be more deal making. Companies will be raising more capital and they will need more assistance from the financial sector.'
He adds that professional, scientific and technical jobs could pick up as well. 'Companies will want to start to pick up research-and-development spending,' Mr. Gault says, 'so their need for more highly skilled workers will increase.'
Another area expected to get a boost in hiring: positions that are revenue generators for a company, according to a survey of more than 2,400 hiring managers and human-resource professionals conducted in November and December for jobs website CareerBuilder.com.
Among companies that expect to increase full-time, permanent workers in 2011, here are the top areas, by function, according to the survey: sales, information technology, customer service, engineering, technology, administrative, business development, marketing, research/development and accounting/finance.
Workers in sales and marketing positions help 'drive top-line growth for an organization,' says Jennifer Grasz, a spokeswoman for CareerBuilder.com.
Some companies remain cautious about taking on a larger full-time staff. So analysts expect to also see growth in temporary work.
Temporary workers allow companies to fill needed positions without taking on the cost of a full-time worker. 'Employers don't want to pick up costs like health care, they don't want to pick up overhead costs,' says Mr. Baker of the Center for Economic and Policy Research.
According to the CareerBuilder.com survey, 34% of hiring managers say they will hire contract or temporary workers in 2011, supplementing leaner staffs. That's up from 30% in 2010 and 28% in 2009.
Many health-care, financial-services, and professional and business-services firms plan to hire temporary or contract workers, according to CareerBuilder.com.
It may be a while, however, before companies turn temp positions into permanent ones. 'The labor market is still going to be very, very weak so there's not a huge incentive for companies to convert these workers into full-time workers,' Mr. Gault says.
One place you won't find job growth: the public sector.
Cities and states are expected to cut staff in 2011, Mr. Challenger says. Many municipal and state budgets face the ax as federal aid dwindles.
Mr. Baker adds that there won't be much hiring on the federal level.
'The public sector is going into recession from a jobs standpoint,' Mr. Challenger says. 'It will lose jobs in 2011 as the country comes to terms with the deficits that are out there. There will be some places where they have no choice but to cut workers, library personnel, teachers.'
Cuts also could affect nonprofits that do business with the government, says Timothy Bartik, senior economist at the W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research in Kalamazoo, Mich.
'We expect to see some weakening in state and local government,' Mr. Bartik says. 'A lot of state and local areas will have to make cutbacks, and that will have an impact on nonprofit agencies that contract with state and local governments.'
參考譯文：
分析人士預(yù)計(jì)，服務(wù)業(yè)形形色色的崗位將在2011年出現(xiàn)增長(zhǎng)的萌芽，如零售、信息技術(shù)、專業(yè)服務(wù)、科學(xué)技術(shù)等，而醫(yī)療行業(yè)的就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)也將持續(xù)。
麻塞諸塞州列克星敦(Lexington)IHS Global Insight經(jīng)濟(jì)咨詢公司的首席美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家奈格爾•高爾特(Nigel Gault)說(shuō)，就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)將主要體現(xiàn)在私營(yíng)板塊服務(wù)領(lǐng)域的多類崗位上。
專家表示，隨著人口老齡化的發(fā)展，醫(yī)療行業(yè)依然是就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)的熱點(diǎn)所在。華盛頓智庫(kù)組織“經(jīng)濟(jì)及政策研究中心”(Center for Economic and Policy Research)的聯(lián)席主任迪恩•貝克(Dean Baker)說(shuō)，醫(yī)療行業(yè)的就業(yè)一直很旺，而且這一勢(shì)頭顯然還會(huì)繼續(xù)下去。
未來(lái)幾年預(yù)計(jì)將有更大需求的崗位包括：護(hù)士、醫(yī)學(xué)科學(xué)家、醫(yī)師助理、皮膚護(hù)理專家以及牙科保健專家。
芝加哥再就業(yè)咨詢公司Challenger, Gray & Christmas的首席執(zhí)行長(zhǎng)約翰•切倫奇(John Challenger)表示，隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)從衰退中逐步復(fù)蘇，坐擁大量現(xiàn)金的企業(yè)需要升級(jí)技術(shù)以獲得競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)，因此信息技術(shù)板塊會(huì)增加更多的就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)。
切倫奇說(shuō)，過(guò)去幾年來(lái)，很多企業(yè)都在削減IT支出。但我們都知道，技術(shù)每隔幾年就會(huì)有一個(gè)巨大的飛躍，因此企業(yè)將購(gòu)買最新的技術(shù)，同時(shí)需要引進(jìn)提供技術(shù)實(shí)施、定制、培訓(xùn)和支援的相關(guān)人員。
高爾特表示，金融服務(wù)領(lǐng)域也可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)。他說(shuō)，借貸活動(dòng)應(yīng)該會(huì)復(fù)蘇，交易行為增加，企業(yè)將進(jìn)一步籌措資本，因此需要來(lái)自金融板塊的更多協(xié)助。
高爾特補(bǔ)充說(shuō)，專業(yè)服務(wù)和科學(xué)技術(shù)方面的就業(yè)崗位可能也會(huì)增長(zhǎng)。他說(shuō)，企業(yè)將會(huì)開(kāi)始提高研發(fā)投入，因此對(duì)于高技能雇員的需求也會(huì)增加。
招聘求職網(wǎng)站CareerBuilder.com在2010年11月和12月對(duì)2,400多位招聘經(jīng)理和人力資源專家所做的一項(xiàng)調(diào)查顯示，另一個(gè)預(yù)期的就業(yè)熱點(diǎn)是各個(gè)企業(yè)中能夠帶來(lái)經(jīng)營(yíng)收入的崗位。
該調(diào)查顯示，2011年全職正式崗位的增長(zhǎng)主要是在以下領(lǐng)域：銷售、信息技術(shù)、客戶服務(wù)、工程、技術(shù)、行政、商業(yè)拓展、市場(chǎng)行銷、研發(fā)以及金融會(huì)計(jì)等。
CareerBuilder.com網(wǎng)站的發(fā)言人杰妮弗•格拉茲(Jennifer Grasz)表示，銷售和市場(chǎng)行銷崗位的從業(yè)人員有助于推動(dòng)企業(yè)的收入增長(zhǎng)。
一些企業(yè)仍對(duì)招聘更多的全職員工心存顧慮，因此分析師預(yù)計(jì)，臨時(shí)性的就業(yè)崗位也會(huì)有所增長(zhǎng)。
企業(yè)能通過(guò)臨時(shí)工來(lái)滿足崗位需求，而無(wú)需負(fù)擔(dān)全職員工的成本。“經(jīng)濟(jì)及政策研究中心”的貝克說(shuō)，招聘企業(yè)不想承擔(dān)員工的醫(yī)療保險(xiǎn)和日常管理費(fèi)用等成本。
根據(jù)CareerBuilder.com的調(diào)查，34%的招聘經(jīng)理表示將在2011年招聘合同工或臨時(shí)工，以彌補(bǔ)人手的不足。這比2010年的30%和2009年的28%有所提高。
CareerBuilder.com表示，很多醫(yī)療、金融服務(wù)、專業(yè)和商業(yè)服務(wù)企業(yè)未來(lái)有招聘臨時(shí)工或合同工的打算。
不過(guò)，企業(yè)將臨時(shí)崗位轉(zhuǎn)為正式崗位可能還需要一段時(shí)間。高爾特說(shuō)，就業(yè)市場(chǎng)還會(huì)非常非常疲軟，因此企業(yè)沒(méi)有太大動(dòng)力去把臨時(shí)工轉(zhuǎn)為正式工。
就業(yè)崗位不會(huì)出現(xiàn)增長(zhǎng)的是：公共部門。
切倫奇說(shuō)，美國(guó)各城市和各州政府預(yù)計(jì)將在2011年減少公務(wù)員崗位。由于聯(lián)邦劃撥資金減少，很多市和州的預(yù)算將面臨大幅削減。
貝克說(shuō)，聯(lián)邦政府層面也不會(huì)有太多的就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)。
切倫奇說(shuō)，從就業(yè)角度而言，公共部門正進(jìn)入一個(gè)衰退期。美國(guó)必須應(yīng)對(duì)財(cái)政赤字問(wèn)題，因此2011年公共部門的就業(yè)崗位將減少。有些地方別無(wú)選擇，不得不削減公務(wù)員、圖書管理員、教師等崗位。
密歇根州卡拉馬祖市(Kalamazoo)W.E. Upjohn就業(yè)研究院(W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research)的蒂莫西•巴迪克(Timothy Bartik)說(shuō)，裁員也會(huì)影響到與政府往來(lái)密切的非盈利組織。
巴迪克說(shuō)，我們預(yù)計(jì)州和市政府的情況有些疲軟，它們中有很多將不得不削減成本，這會(huì)對(duì)與其有合作關(guān)系的非盈利機(jī)構(gòu)產(chǎn)生影響。
