英智庫(kù)：伊拉克瀕臨瓦解 (British Think Tank: Iraq on Verge of Collapse)

英國(guó)一個(gè)研究機(jī)構(gòu)發(fā)表一份報(bào)告警告說(shuō)，伊拉克面臨明顯的國(guó)家瓦解和分裂的可能性。設(shè)在倫敦的“查塔姆研究所”發(fā)表的報(bào)告說(shuō)，伊拉克政府只是伊拉克眾多“國(guó)家型”因素中的一個(gè)，已經(jīng)很大程度上毫無(wú)權(quán)威，并且在許多地區(qū)毫無(wú)作用。

這份簡(jiǎn)報(bào)的起草者斯坦斯菲爾德說(shuō)，伊拉克不是有“一場(chǎng)內(nèi)戰(zhàn)，而是有很多場(chǎng)內(nèi)戰(zhàn)和反叛行動(dòng)”。盡管報(bào)告認(rèn)為，最近的軍事戰(zhàn)術(shù)沒(méi)有能夠減少暴力活動(dòng)，不過(guò)報(bào)告還是預(yù)測(cè)，伊拉克保安部隊(duì)無(wú)法應(yīng)對(duì)多國(guó)部隊(duì)撤離的局面。

這個(gè)外交政策智庫(kù)敦促美國(guó)和英國(guó)采取重大戰(zhàn)略改變，建議主動(dòng)接觸同遜尼派和激進(jìn)的什葉派教士薩德爾，解決聯(lián)邦制問(wèn)題和石油收入分配等問(wèn)題。

A British research institute has published a report warning that Iraq faces the distinct possibility of collapse and fragmentation. The report by London-based Chatham House argues that the Iraqi government is only one of many "state-like" actors in the country and is already largely powerless and irrelevant in many areas.

The briefing paper's author, Gareth Stansfield, says that "there is not 'a' civil war in Iraq, but many civil wars and insurgencies." Although the report finds that recent military tactics have failed to decrease violence, it also predicts that Iraq's security forces would be unable to cope with the withdrawal of multinational forces.

The foreign policy think tank urges a radical change in U.S. and British strategy. It recommends reaching out to Sunnis and radical Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr and addressing issues of federalism and the allocation of oil revenues.