在這個(gè)幾乎“全民皆股”的時(shí)代，怎樣選擇股票實(shí)在是個(gè)大問(wèn)題。下面這篇文章為您稍作一下分析，希望對(duì)您有用。

    When technical analysis is mentioned, people often think of analysts plotting price movements of stocks, drawing lines to find trends, support or resistance. Technical analysis is the art of deducing probable future trend from historical records of stock trading. It is the study of the stock market itself rather than the external factors that influence the market. The most familiar indicators used are the price and volume of a stock.

    Advocates of technical analysis believe that information is not immediately reflected in the market prices of stocks. For example, when a piece of good news about a company is available, it is not immediately known to everyone but is slowly passed from one person to another.

    This process takes time and an upward price trend develops for that company as more and more people hear the good news and want to buy the stock and fewer and fewer people are willing to sell the stock. The stock price which has started to move in an uptrend will continue to do so until something happens to change the supply-demand balance.

    For the technical analyst, he does not need to know what the good news or any other information that is affecting the stock price is; the chart will tell him whether the stock price is going to move up or down. He does not need to know the fundamentals of the company because if the price is going up, the fundamentals must be improving.

    On the other hand, fundamental analysis examines all relevant factors affecting the stock price in order to determine an intrinsic value for that stock. If the market price is below the intrinsic value, then the stock is undervalued and should be bought. The factors to consider include balance sheet items, corporate management, business prospects and earnings outlook.

    The fundamental analyst calculates financial ratios based on data available from the balance sheet and income statement of a company. From these ratios, he deduces the financial strength and earnings trend of the company. Then he will meet the company's management to affirm his deductions, to understand the business and to learn of any new development of the company and the industry.

    A widely used tool in fundamental analysis is the price-earnings ratio or PE ratio. It is calculated using the stock price divided by the earnings per share (EPS) of a company. As a general rule, a stock with a low PE ratio is considered cheap although there are difficulties in applying this principle. PE ratios of two companies can only be compared if the companies are similar.

    It is believed that companies in different industries deserve different PE ratios. For example, Singapore Telecom is believed to deserve a higher PE ratio than many other stocks because of its position in the telecommunication business.

    However, analysts have not yet agreed on what PE ratio each industry or company deserves and there is no one way to determine the right PE ratio. Both approaches attempt to predict the future price movement of a stock. Fundamentalists study the cause of market movement while technicians believe that the effect is all that they need to know.

    Despite their differences, both approaches try to increase your probability of picking up the right stock at a right price. However, these methods only increase your chances but do not guarantee complete success. Some believe that fundamental analysis is good for picking the right stock while technical analysis is appropriate to decide the right price or time to buy.

    For the professional investor, he has to take another step of deciding the sequence of analysis. This will have an impact on how the investor divides his money among different countries and stocks. Basically, the investor decides whether the market as a whole or the company itself is more important in determining stock prices. Both factors definitely influence stock prices but the degree of influence is the issue.

    The top-down approach or sometimes known as the Economy-Industry-Company (EIC) model emphasizes the market over the company. It starts with the analysis of different economies to determine which country could offer the investor better returns.

    In the selected economy, it searches for industries that provide better prospects and it picks the best companies within these industries. The top-down approach offers a systematic and structured way to analyze stocks. It advocates that the economy and industry effects are significant factors in determining the total return for stocks.

    The bottom-up or stock picking approach believes in finding stocks that are undervalued which can provide superior returns irrespective of the market and industry factors. The company effect is the dominant factor in determining stock return.

    There is no overwhelming evidence to suggest which approach offers superior returns to the investors. The most important thing is that an investor is comfortable with a particular method, understands its strengths and limitations, experiments with it, finds that it works for him and abides by the method.

    一提起技術(shù)分析，人們就會(huì)想到股票分析員畫(huà)股價(jià)走勢(shì)圖，找支持線和阻力線。基本上，這個(gè)方式是根據(jù)過(guò)去的記錄預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)表現(xiàn)。換句話說(shuō)，技術(shù)分析研究股市本身，不是影響它的外在因素；而股價(jià)和成交量是它最常用的數(shù)據(jù)。

    技術(shù)分析的支持者認(rèn)為，影響股價(jià)的消息沒(méi)有立即反映在股價(jià)上。舉例說(shuō)，一家公司的好消息并不是每個(gè)人都同時(shí)知道的，而是從一人傳到另一個(gè)，整個(gè)過(guò)程需要一段時(shí)間。越來(lái)越多人知道這好消息后會(huì)買(mǎi)進(jìn)，而越來(lái)越少的人愿意賣(mài)掉，這么一來(lái)使股價(jià)逐步升高。股價(jià)會(huì)因此繼續(xù)上升直到供應(yīng)與需求的平衡出現(xiàn)變化。

    但對(duì)技術(shù)分析員來(lái)說(shuō)，他并不需要知道那好消息是什么，走勢(shì)圖將告訴他股價(jià)會(huì)起還是落。他也不需知道公司的基礎(chǔ)因素，對(duì)他來(lái)說(shuō)，基礎(chǔ)會(huì)隨著股價(jià)上升而改善。他們相信歷史會(huì)重演，可從過(guò)去的股價(jià)走勢(shì)推測(cè)它將來(lái)的表現(xiàn)。

    另一方面，基礎(chǔ)分析則研究所有可能影響股價(jià)的因素，以確定股票的實(shí)際價(jià)值。如果市價(jià)低過(guò)實(shí)值，就值得買(mǎi)進(jìn)。基礎(chǔ)分析員研究資產(chǎn)與負(fù)債表的項(xiàng)目、企業(yè)管理層、業(yè)務(wù)展望和盈利潛能，再根據(jù)資產(chǎn)與負(fù)債表和損益表提供的數(shù)據(jù)計(jì)算而得的比例，判斷這家公司的財(cái)力和盈利趨勢(shì)。分析員也會(huì)與公司的管理層會(huì)面，了解它的業(yè)務(wù)以及有關(guān)公司和行業(yè)的最新發(fā)展。

    本益比是基礎(chǔ)分析中最常用的比例，計(jì)算方式是股價(jià)除每股盈利。一般上，低本益比表示股票便宜。 不過(guò)，這個(gè)準(zhǔn)則有時(shí)不太好用。兩家公司從事相同的業(yè)務(wù)，才能夠比較它們的本益比；不同行業(yè)的公司，本益比通常是不一樣的。舉例說(shuō)，以新加坡電信在電信業(yè)的地位，它的本益比會(huì)較其他公司高。

    對(duì)于每個(gè)行業(yè)的本益比應(yīng)是多少，分析員們到目前為止還沒(méi)有定論，而且也沒(méi)有計(jì)算正確本益比的方式。 技術(shù)分析和基礎(chǔ)分析都嘗試預(yù)測(cè)股價(jià)今后的走勢(shì)。它們的做法雖然不一樣，但都盡可能幫助投資者以合適的價(jià)格買(mǎi)入有增值潛能的股票。不過(guò)，它們都只能提高可能性，而不能保證成功。有些人認(rèn)為，基礎(chǔ)分析較適合用于選擇股票，而技術(shù)分析則適用于決定買(mǎi)入的時(shí)機(jī)和價(jià)格。

    對(duì)專(zhuān)業(yè)投資者來(lái)說(shuō)，他們還必須決定分析的步驟。這將影響投資者把資金分配于不同市場(chǎng)和股票的決定。基本上，他們決定市場(chǎng)的整體走勢(shì)還是公司本身對(duì)股價(jià)的影響比較大。這兩個(gè)因素都會(huì)影響股價(jià)，但程度可能不同。

    從上至下的方法側(cè)重于整體市場(chǎng)。它首先決定哪個(gè)市場(chǎng)能帶來(lái)較高的回報(bào)，然后再選擇具投資展望的行業(yè)和屬于這一行業(yè)的公司。這是個(gè)系統(tǒng)化的股票分析方式，認(rèn)為經(jīng)濟(jì)和行業(yè)是決定股票回報(bào)的重要因素。

    而從下至上的選擇股票方式，無(wú)視市場(chǎng)和行業(yè)因素，重點(diǎn)是選擇市值低于股值的股票，認(rèn)為公司本身是決定回報(bào)的最重要因素。

    哪個(gè)方式能帶來(lái)較高的回報(bào)，并沒(méi)任何研究證明。最重要的是投資者懂得所選擇方式的優(yōu)缺點(diǎn)，并嘗試使用。