Too often, investors focus on figures that supposedly offer insight into a company's performance without shedding light on how it actually makes its money.

Graphic-design and printing-services company VistaPrint is a case in point. Investors have pushed the shares down over the past month because the company's most recent quarterly results raised concerns about slowing revenue growth and narrowing gross margins.

But on that score, investors may be worrying about the wrong issue: VistaPrint appears to generate a big portion of its operating profit from fees it receives for 'referring' customers to outside parties that 'offer' rewards programs.

That calls into question whether the stock, even after its recent fall, deserves to trade at 20 times expected earnings for the fiscal year ending in June 2009, according to estimates from Thomson Reuters.

VistaPrint's customers often don't realize that they are purchasing the referred services. The services are offered through a screen that pops up at the end of the VistaPrint buying process. That screen purports to offer the customer $10 off their most recent purchase. But customers who sign up for this are actually enrolling in a program that charges them $14.95 a month for what are supposed to be discounts on amusement parks and movies, among other things.

In a statement, VistaPrint said, 'We don't 'trick' our customers into a service that they don't want. Customers are smarter than that. We go to great lengths to ensure that only those customers that want that particular service or offering pay for that service or offering.'

The company declined to say what portion of operating profit comes from referral fees, adding that it doesn't give product-by-product breakdowns.

In regulatory filings, VistaPrint acknowledges the risk associated with referral fees. The company said some of the programs that pay it referral fees 'have been the subject of consumer complaints and litigation alleging that their enrollment and billing practices violate various consumer protection laws or are otherwise deceptive.'

A careful read of the fine print in VistaPrint's financial filings shows that referral fees are an important driver of profit.

In the fiscal quarter ended March 31, for example, VistaPrint said 6.7% of its $106 million in revenue came from referral fees. Such disclosures about referral fees came only after prodding last year from the Securities and Exchange Commission.

But the SEC didn't force VistaPrint to disclose how this revenue affected operating profit. To figure that out, one has to read lower in the footnote, which says that referral-fee revenues 'have minimal corresponding direct cost of revenue.'

In other words, they are pretty much pure profit. But assuming, say, that the company racked up an 80% margin on these revenues, the fees would have accounted for about half of operating profit in the most recent quarter.

The contribution, though, could be even higher, given VistaPrint's own description of the costs tied to them as 'minimal.' Analysts note that referral revenue is declining as an overall slice of the business. But it still makes up a big piece of profit.

Until that changes, investors should remember that Vista-Print prints business cards -- not money.

J.P. Morgan's Dimon

Warns on Credit Cards

One lesson investors have learned by watching J.P. Morgan Chase manage its way through the credit-market mess is that if this bank is worried, others should be terrified. If J.P. Morgan expects losses, they will likely be worse at its rivals.

Chief Executive James Dimon recently sounded a warning about credit cards. With the second quarter nearly two-thirds over and earnings preannouncement season coming up, history could repeat itself quickly.

Last month, J.P. Morgan wrote off 4.5% of its credit-card loans, up from 4.35% in March and 3.84% a year earlier. Mr. Dimon said that upward trend will continue, with losses on track to surpass 5% this year and 6% in 2009 -- potentially a nearly 50% rise from last year's levels.

When it comes to credit-card losses, other big banks appear to have more to worry about than J.P. Morgan. Citigroup's April loss rate was 5.74%, compared with 5.37% in March and 4.09% last spring. Bank of America Corp. has the highest loss rate: 6.88% last month, versus 6.52% a month earlier and 5.39% a year earlier.

投資者往往太過(guò)看重公司的業(yè)績(jī)數(shù)據(jù)，試圖從中洞察公司營(yíng)運(yùn)表現(xiàn)究竟如何，殊不知這些數(shù)字并不能告訴人們這家企業(yè)到底是怎么把錢掙到手的。

制圖設(shè)計(jì)及印刷服務(wù)公司VistaPrint就是這樣一個(gè)例子。投資者在過(guò)去一個(gè)月中一直在打壓該股，只因其最近財(cái)季的盈利情況令人擔(dān)心該公司收入增長(zhǎng)放緩、毛利降低。

但是究其原因，投資者可能擔(dān)心的不是地方。VistaPrint營(yíng)運(yùn)利潤(rùn)中的很大一部分似乎來(lái)自于把客戶推薦給提供其他項(xiàng)目的外部企業(yè)而從中賺取的“過(guò)手推薦費(fèi)”。

這就引發(fā)了這樣一個(gè)問(wèn)題：即便該股近期連連下挫，但其市盈率是否值得保持在20倍的水平；這一數(shù)據(jù)是基于湯姆森-路透(Thomson Reuters Corp.)對(duì)該公司截至2009年6月財(cái)年的盈利預(yù)期所做的計(jì)算。

VistaPrint的客戶往往意識(shí)不到他們買了轉(zhuǎn)手服務(wù)。他們?cè)赩istaPrint買進(jìn)流程最后彈出的屏幕中選擇了該服務(wù)。這個(gè)頁(yè)面聲稱自己給客戶剛剛購(gòu)買的服務(wù)折去了10美元。但那些簽單的客戶實(shí)際上卻是注冊(cè)了一個(gè)每月向他們收費(fèi)14.95美元的項(xiàng)目，注冊(cè)這個(gè)項(xiàng)目可以在他們?nèi)ビ螛?lè)園、看電影或參加其他活動(dòng)時(shí)享受到折扣價(jià)。

VistaPrint在一份聲明表示，公司并沒(méi)有欺騙客戶接受他們不想接受的服務(wù)；客戶是更聰明的一群人；公司付出了極大的努力，為的就是確保只有那些想接受、或愿意掏錢的客戶才會(huì)購(gòu)買這些它們。

公司拒絕透露營(yíng)運(yùn)利潤(rùn)中有多大比重來(lái)自這種“過(guò)手推薦費(fèi)”，并表示不提供各種產(chǎn)品的細(xì)分?jǐn)?shù)據(jù)。

VistaPrint在提交給監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)的文件中承認(rèn)這種收入蘊(yùn)含著風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。公司表示，部分付給自己推薦費(fèi)的項(xiàng)目遭到了消費(fèi)者的投訴，甚至吃了官司；消費(fèi)者聲稱公司讓他們參加這樣的項(xiàng)目并為此付費(fèi)實(shí)際上違反了多部消費(fèi)者保護(hù)法的規(guī)定，或直指這其中存在欺騙行為。

通過(guò)仔細(xì)研讀VistaPrint財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)告中的繁雜描述就不難發(fā)現(xiàn)，此類收入在推高公司收益方面發(fā)揮了重要作用。

舉例來(lái)說(shuō)，VistaPrint表示在截至3月31日的財(cái)季中，其1.06億美元的總收入中有6.7%是這種推薦費(fèi)所得。在去年美國(guó)證券交易委員會(huì)(SEC)的敦促下，公司才同意對(duì)此項(xiàng)收入情況進(jìn)行披露。

但SEC并沒(méi)有強(qiáng)制要求VistaPrint說(shuō)明這類收入對(duì)營(yíng)運(yùn)利潤(rùn)有何影響。要想弄明白這一點(diǎn)，人們就必須再去研究下方的腳注，上面說(shuō)推薦費(fèi)收入的直接成本極低。

換句話說(shuō)，這項(xiàng)收入中很大一部分就是純利潤(rùn)。但是，如果假設(shè)推薦費(fèi)收入的利潤(rùn)率是80%，那么此項(xiàng)盈利就占到了公司最近財(cái)季總利潤(rùn)的將近一半。

然而，考慮到VistaPrint自己說(shuō)這項(xiàng)業(yè)務(wù)的成本“極低”，那么它對(duì)公司盈利的貢獻(xiàn)怕是要更多。分析師指出，推薦費(fèi)收入隨著整體業(yè)務(wù)的下滑也在減少，但它在整體盈利中仍占到了很大一部分。

在這種情況發(fā)生改變前，投資者都應(yīng)該記住Vista-Print的業(yè)務(wù)是印名片，而不是鈔票。

摩根大通董事長(zhǎng)戴蒙為信用卡業(yè)務(wù)敲警鐘

投資者通過(guò)觀察摩根大通(J.P. Morgan Chase)在應(yīng)對(duì)信貸危機(jī)時(shí)的所作所為就應(yīng)該學(xué)會(huì)一點(diǎn)，如果一家銀行令人擔(dān)心，那么別的銀行也好不到哪里去。如果摩根大通預(yù)計(jì)會(huì)發(fā)生虧損，那么它的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手表現(xiàn)可能會(huì)更糟糕。

摩根大通董事長(zhǎng)詹姆斯•戴蒙(James Dimon)日前就對(duì)信用卡業(yè)務(wù)發(fā)出了警告。由于第二財(cái)季已過(guò)去了三分之二，且收益預(yù)告季節(jié)即將拉開(kāi)大幕，歷史可能很快又要重演了。

摩根大通上個(gè)月沖減了4.5%的信用卡貸款，沖減比例較3月的4.35%以及上年同期的3.84%均有所上升。戴蒙表示，這一上升趨勢(shì)還將繼續(xù)下去，預(yù)計(jì)今明兩年的損失將分別超過(guò)5%和6%，這和去年時(shí)比起來(lái)幾乎增長(zhǎng)了50%。

其實(shí)就信用卡業(yè)務(wù)的虧損而言，其他大型銀行似乎比摩根大通更撓頭。花旗(Citigroup) 4月份的虧損率為5.74%，而3月份及上年同期時(shí)分別為5.37%和4.09%。上個(gè)月美國(guó)銀行(Bank of America Corp.) 4月份的信用卡業(yè)務(wù)虧損率成了業(yè)界“第一”，高達(dá)6.88%，而3月份和上年同期分別為6.52%和5.39%。